A Brief Lull in Action, Taking Stock of Russia, Slovenia

While both Russia and Slovenia take some time to lick their proverbial wounds, (for Russia seeing how Zhirkov’s knees feel day to day especially) let’s take a step back and take stock of what has happened so far.  Russia, clearly the more talented team, hold a small 2 – 1 edge over the perhaps underrated Slovenia side.  In this match, Russia may not have played their best throughout, but they still seemed to display long stretches of crisp passing, good ball movement and that lightning quick fluid attack of their’s. 

Igor Akinfeev was his usual brilliant self, making several impressive saves … which he seems to do on matchly basis now.  Yuri Zhirkov raised some eyebrows, first for his inclusion in the starting squad.  Then, for how well he played.  It was unusual perhaps, to see a player who has been plagued for months with an injury, come out and make the darting runs that he did.  Alexander Anyukov patrolled all over the right flank, up and down.  The midfield was good, perhaps not at peak sharpness, but very good.  Diniyar Bilyaletdinov was the suprise man of the match and appeared to have a greater influence on the match than playmaker Andrei Arshavin.   Pavlyuchenko got a suprise start up top and played relatively well.  So, why only a one goal cushion. 

Though the talent between sides isn’t light years apart, it’s clear there is a decent gap between the two rosters.  Slovenia however were able to have solid moments of enterprise.  There side is not without it’s own amount of considerable talent and a track record.  Slovenia did a good job keeping their shape in the first leg, they were for the most part a rock defensively.  They were patient and waited for the right moments to turn on the jets a bit.   Most importantly they Pecnik in the right place at the right time, to truly make this a contest heading into Leg 2. 

In all the talk of Slovenia’s track record in previous playoff fixtures, talk about their sturdy and reliable defense, (4 goals allowed in qualifying) of how good they play at home … Russia and Hiddink’s track records must not be overlooked. 

While luck surely played some role in Hiddink’s long list of successes, it surely wasn’t the largest contributing factor.  Though it is always good to have luck on your side, in addition to talent and good coaching.  Hiddink appears to have all this going for him.  His honors and achievements go on and on.  They include two semi-final appearances in the FIFA World Cup, with both his native Netherlands and South Korea.  His work with the Korean team was particularly impressive considering they had yet to win a match at the World Cup, in five appearances.  Hiddink guided Australia out of the group stages at the last World Cup.  The Socceroos run in Germany was ended very controversially, as the eventual champions, Italy, were awarded a seemingly bad penalty call in the 90th minute of the 2nd Round match.  The Italians converted to win 1 – 0.   Hiddink also won what is now called the UEFA Champions League with Dutch club, PSV Eindhoven. 

With Russia, Hiddink took the team to the semifinals of UEFA Euro 2008.   Even before completing their historic win over the Netherlands, Russia had already made national history.  Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, no team representing the Russian Federation had made it past the group stage of the World Cup or Euro.  With Hiddink’s ability to mold this very talened Russian team into a razor sharp spear, Russia excelled mightily.  We have continued to see their evolution as a team. 

With all this success, it’s clear that Guus Hiddink not only know what he’s doing, but that he also has an uncanny ability to instill much needed confidence in his teams.  This is, of course, a guarded confidence.  A belief in one’s abilties, but then the focus and will to execute.  Hiddink’s Russia team is not always perfect, but they are explosive and well – prepared. 

Yes, Slovenia does have a track record.  Yes, they have been a defensive fortress.  However, Russia’s track record in qualifying shows that their only blemish came against one of the best in the world, Germany.  Sure, they did also manage only a draw in their last Group 4 match agasinst Azerbaijan, but it was pretty much a meaningless fixture. 

The important thing to remember is that Slovenia NEEDS to score.  Even though the finish in Moskva sureley has given them some confidence and belief in their ability to do what needs to be done, they must be cautious in their approach.  I find it hard to believe that Slovenia will come out full throttle just based on this confidenced and because they will be playing before an electrified home crowd.  It looks as though they will take a cautious, but still attacking approach into this deciding 2nd Leg.  They would surely take a goal at any time, but maybe would be happier to score a bit later and not give Russia too much time to throw everything but the kitchen sink at them. 

For their part, Russia will probably looking to score as early as possible.  Not only too take the crowd out of it, but also to open up Slovenia early.  Slovenia will have to press forward to score and the longer they go without getting a goal, the more pressure they will have to assert into their attack.  This should play right into Russia’s hands.  Hiddink will surely have them attacking, but perhaps with a bit more patience in the build – up.  Russia is particularly dangerous on the break and could catch Slovenia with their hand in the cookie jar.  Should Hiddink’s team score early, this would stretch the Slovenes out even more and you could see Russia really put this one away. 

At the same time though, Russia must be careful to maintain their own shape, especially at the back, or Slovenia could be the one to catch them on the counter – attack.  So, this is a bit of a double – edged sword. 

Either way, it should be an exciting and entertaining affair in Maribor later today.

Prediction : Slovenia 0 – 2 Russia