World Cup Qualifier Preview: Russia Hosts Germany

It is not often that you get a chance to knock a king off his throne. If the international footballing landscape had monarchs, the Germans would be one.¹

The country has won three World Cups, finished second four times, and placed third three additional times. In their sixteen appearances in football’s ultimate event, they have made it to at least the semifinals eleven times, having failed to make it out of their group only once.²

Within Europe, Germany has had similar success. They have won the European Championships three times, finishing second another three times, and have an additional semifinals appearance. Their combined record between European Championships and the World Cup is the most impressive of any country in Europe.³

Contrast that with Russia. Russia has never won a World Cup (nor did the Soviet Union). They have only qualified from two of the four tournaments they have entered since the Union broke up. They made the semifinals of the last European Championships, but in their previous two appearances did not make it out of group.

The contrast in history is striking. Germany has only missed two World Cups: the 1938 event in Uruguay⁴ and the 1950 event in Brazil. Russia has only been to two World Cups. This is the kind of contrast you expect when a European power faces an African country, yet here we are, two of the oldest cultures in the world, both with deep footballing traditions, playing Saturday for a spot in the World Cup.

Comparisons to Germany’s history are not exactly fair to Russia; however, they do underscore how far the program has come in such a short period of time. Russia inherited a deep and proud footballing culture from the Soviet Union, but there was still a long way to go to catch up to the Western European powers who, along with the South Americans, having traditionally dominated the sport.

On Saturday, Russia has their opportunity to dethrone one of football’s monarchs. This would be like the Russian national ice hockey team going into Berlin to face a blooming German team.⁵ In terms of history and magnitude of accomplishment, Russia knocking Germany out of the top spot in UEFA’s Group 4 would be like the Germans beating the Russians in ice hockey at the World Championships.

How We Got Here

When the group draw happened in November 2007, Russia was a promising team with a respected coach and little more. Most teams would not have been bothered if Russia was drawn into their group. At the time, that would have been better than England or Sweden, the thinking went.

When Germany and Russia were paired together, few thought Germany – one year removed from a strong (and surprising) showing in their World Cup – would be threatened.

Then Euro 2008 happened, Russia announced their presence on the European stage, and everything changed for Group 4. Russia got half of their national team players into the biggest leagues in Europe (whereas before the team was almost exclusively Russian Premier League-based) and got their players battle-hardened.

In qualifying, the only points Russia have dropped was a 2-1 loss in Dortmund (October, 2008). Lukas Podolski and Michael Ballack scored in the first half-hour. Russia never pulled back. Andrei Arshavin’s 51st minute goal and better second-half play were only consolations for Russia, who lost 2-1.

Though the team left Germany with reason for hope, it was still a disappointing result and a reminder that the Germans are on that next, elite level. In truth, Germany had control of the whole match.

In hindsight, the match was must-win for the Germans. They could not have expected Russia to claim the remainder of their points. Yet, Hiddink’s team been perfect, giving more importance to Germany’s draw in Helsinki to Finland, a result recorded in the round before Dortmund. Unlike Russia, Germany has dropped points to another team, opening the door for the Russians to take this group.

Germany comes into the match up one point on the Russians. A draw coupled with a win next Wednesday over the Fins sends them to South Africa.

Russia goes to Azerbaijan on Wednesday, but if they win at Luzhniki,⁶ Baku will be a win-and-in match.

Preparing for Luzhniki

Artificial turf is a frequent topic of discussion when Russian football comes up amongst those who do not regularly follow the league. Given the general aversion to the carpet, it’s not surprising that the few instances people are able to see matches from Russia (typically, from Luzhniki) burn an image of the fake stuff into memories.

Germany manager Joachim Loew is preparing for the carpet by having his team train in Mainz, where there is an artificial surface. Any experience Loew can get his team playing on the rug⁸ will help. For a squad whose players play most of their matches on the immaculate, natural surfaces of Western Europe’s biggest leagues, playing on carpet will at-best be a non-factor, at worst be a decisive.

When you have two teams of similar talent and performance, details like these start to become determinative. Is a key player hurt? Is the temperature affecting the play of one or two players? Did a player get an early yellow card and have to curtail aggression? Did Welsh whiskey help prevent swine flu?

Is one team more acquainted with the surface?

It is one of the tactical advantages that the Russians have, and for a team that plays a more fluid style, one whose game is more tailored to the use of space, the turf is an even greater advantage.

In addition, Russia’s whole defense (with the exception of right back Aleksandr Anyukov) plays or played on this surface regularly. Center backs Sergei Ignashevich and Vasili Berezutskiy play for CSKA Moskva. Chelsea’s Yuri Zhirkov just moved from CSKA to England. Goaltender Igor Akinfeev will be able to read his attacker’s potential on a rolling ball better for Luzhniki being his home pitch.

Do we call a field with artificial turf a pitch?⁷

Germany

Reportedly, Joachim Loew had played with the idea of going to a 4-3-3 for this match, a formation he experimented with in the last rounds of qualifying. However, the 4-3-3 idea is a bit of a misnomer, as the formation he used is better described as a 4-5-1, where Mario Gomez or Miroslav Klöse pushed the line with Lukas Podolski and Bastian Schweinsteiger playing wide. In the middle was a midfield triangle: two deep midfielders behind one central, advanced midfielder.

A 4-3-3 would not work for Germany against Russia. A 4-5-1, however, would solve a myriad of problems as well as promote Germany’s ultimate goal: getting at least one point. If they can congest the midfield and use their deep midfielders to provide support to their wide defenders, Germany can use their strength and organization to hold-out for a draw.

Assuming Loew picks this formation, expect (from left-to-right) Marcel Schäfer (Wolfsburg), Heiko Westermann (Schalke), Per Mertesacker (Werder Bremen), and Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich) to start in front of René Adler (Bayer Leverkusen). Another possibility would be Hertha Berlin’s Arne Friedrich, the most capped of Loew’s defensive options, who would start ahead of Schäfer.

In front of the back, Loew will have Chelsea’s Michael Ballack (right) and Stuttgart’s Thomas Hitzlsperger (left), both players who will be able to contribute in attack, as needed. Loew could also elect to move Ballack into the more advanced role and start Bayer’s Simon Rolfes, who has been in-form in the Bundesliga.

That would solve one problem Loew has with this formation: deciding who plays that central midfield role. The natural answer would be Schweinsteiger, who has been strong in that role since being deployed there by Louis van Gaal at Bayern. That, however, leaves a hole on the right, where there is not an obvious replacement (besides Lahm, but that’s a whole other can of schnitzel).⁹

If Ballack is deployed in the deeper role, Werder Bremen’s Mesut Özil becomes the likely choice. He or fellow 20-year-old, Bremen prospect Marko Marin could fill the role. Together they have eleven international caps, providing more credence to moving Ballack up or going with a 4-4-2. Özil played the role in the last qualifier, and with Germany posting a 4-0 win, that could hint towards his inclusion.

Of course, two of those goals came after Joachim Loew had switched back to a 4-4-2. In the 65th minute against Azerbaijan, Loew put Piotr Trochowski (Hamburg) on for Schweinsteiger, moved Hitzlsperger out left and pushed Podolski up. Germany proceeded to score two goals in six minutes, both from their strikers. The Germans were up a man against minnows, but before the substitution, they were not getting results.

Regarding those strikers, Miroslav Klöse (Bayern Munich) seems the likely choice over Mario Gómez. Gómez has struggled for Bayern and did not score in his half of play against Azerbaijan. Klöse has scored in Germany’s last two qualifiers.

Russia

With Andrei Arshavin back and Roman Pavlyuchenko training, Russia has only one injury concern. The loss of Dynamo’s Denis Kolodin is big, but having gone through the last qualifying break without him, Guss Hiddink will be prepared.

Sergei Ignashevich will partner CSKA teammate Vasili Berezutskiy, with Anyukov and Zhirkov on the wings. Like any center back pairing, the CSKA pair will be tested by the Germans, who will physically challenge the back line. At 6′5″ and having four inches on Kolodin, the inclusion of Berezutskiy might actually be an advantage in matching up with Michael Ballack on set pieces.

If the Germans do play with five midfielders, they should have more possession than normal, which will lead to a few more fouls. That means more set pieces, putting more pressure on the Russian back line. Thankfully, this scenario would also entail one fewer forward on the pitch for Germany, mitigating that advantage.

In front of the back line and Igor Akinfeev in goal, the decisions get more interesting and critical. Russia can play with a four or five man midfield, depending on where they wish to deploy Andrei Arshavin. If they put Arshavin on the left, they could play with two additional, central strikers. If Arshavin plays a traditional number ten, the formation ends up being a hybrid 4-5-1, with Arshavin playing a very high attacking midfielder’s role.

In addition to the two differing formations, there are two schools of thought that will inform Hiddink’s decision, both of which must be influenced by the goal: Winning. That may seem like a obvious statement, but remember: The Germans don’t have to win to avoid the playoff. Russia has to win.

Hiddink must start by assessing his team, determining if he would be making an undo sacrifice with one of the formations. Do either of the two formations, independent of what Loew does, give him an appreciably better chance of winning? It’s possible he will decide playing Arshavin as the supporting striker is clearly his team’s best formation; however, an argument can be made that Russian’s 4-4-2 is just as effective. If Hiddink does not believe that argument, we will see the hybrid 4-5-1.

If, however, Hiddink believes in both formations, he needs to evaluate what Loew is likely to do. If Loew goes with a 4-4-2, Russia should go 4-5-1, use their superior speed and skill in the midfield to control possession and tempo, exploit the greater space in midfield, and get to the suspect German back line. In this scenario, you could see Aleksandr Kerzhakov or Pavel Pograbnyak supported by Arshavin, with Vladimir Bystrov, Konstantin Zyryanov, Sergei Semak, and Diniyar Bilyaletdinov in the midfield.

If Loew goes 4-5-1, Germany is going to have too much support in front of the back line to attack through the middle. Russia will need to go wide and work back to two central strikers or oncoming midfielders.

In this scenario, Arshavin would be deployed on the left, in front of Zhirkov. They would attack Germany’s weakest defender, Philipp Lahm, and when Michael Ballack or Per Mertesacker come to support, they can use Vladimir Bystrov’s ability to come-in, creating an advantage. Arshavin, who is brilliant working along the goal line, should be able to pick from multiple targets. He could also get into the box himself, should Zhirkov get possession deep in attack.

While it’s unclear whether Loew go 4-5-1, Hiddink would be best served by assuming he will. Even if Loew goes 4-4-2, Russia’s two striker formation gives them more goal scorers on the pitch. Given Russia can not settle for a draw, they need to have this level of aggression.

Prediction

The only reason to pick Germany is history. How much that history informs the present is unclear. Is there something inherent in German football that allows them to grind out results? If so, that would explain their results not only at the last Euro (where many thought they over-achieved by one round) and the last World Cup (where they came in at a low point, before Jürgen Klinsmann revitalized them), but it would also explain their historically consistent dominance.

For all that it can tell us, history is really a very morbid thing. Undo reliance on it implicitly says “whatever was, will be.” Germany has been good, they are currently good, and they will be good – the thought goes.

The whole process, devoid of even the potential for change, is a bit depressing.

If history is that predictive, where goes that leave Russia? With their Soviet past, which is no longer applicable? Or “Russia’s” own footballing past, which is practically non-existent? Neither of these scenarios allow for a minimal probability that Russia can win. That seems non-sensical.

If you use that logic to discard the influence of history, there is not much to recommend Germany over Russia. Russia is at home, playing on a surface that’s foreign to the Germans. Russia has the best player (Arshavin) and the better coach (Hiddink). Against similar competition, Russia has not dropped a point. Germany has dropped two. Tactically, Russia has very clear ways in which they can exploit Germany.

Given Russia’s style of play, expect the match to play out like the Euro 2008 final, where Germany spent most of the match chopping down the Spanish midfield. If Germany gets away with that approach or if Russia can not get somebody to break through the way Fernando Torres brilliantly broke the Germans in Vienna, German can get their point.

Spain ended up beating Germany 1-0, and while these Russian players are not European champions, between home pitch, the carpet, and Andrei Arshavin, they can get a similar result.

Prediction: Russia, 1-0

Notes
1 – For the purposes of this article, historical information combines West and East Germany, with West Germany responsible for almost all Germany’s international accomplishments. East Germany qualified for only one World Cup, 1974, and never qualified for the European Championships.
2 – Germany was not permitted entry into the 1950 World Cup due to issues stemming from World War II, and they did not attend the event in Uruguay in 1938.
3 – Italy has more World Cup victories than Germany but has performed vastly worse than the Germans in the European Championships.
4 – Anybody who listens to the Talk network podcasts knows why.
5 – IIHF ranks Germany #12 in ice hockey. Russia is #1.
6 – Those not regulars at Russian Football Now: Luzhniki is the main stadium in Moscow, seating over 76,000, where both CSKA Moskva and Spartak Moskva play.
7 – I say no. Let’s call it a roll, as in roll out the carpet.
8 – Calling it a rug is a little weird, since it’s not the traditional AstroTurg which, when rolled out, gave the impression of a rug. As can be seen in the picture, the surface is actually FieldTurf.
9 – Over the last couple of seasons, Bayern has played with moving Lahm into a more advanced role. Under Klinsmann, this was done with a shift to a 3-5-2, a formation that lasted so few matches that it’s difficult to convince people it ever happened.