Russia’s UEFA Coefficient Crisis

Does the number 47.625 mean anything to you?

Before you answer that question, ask yourself if you really want to get into this. When you see random numbers carried out to the thousandths place, the ensuing conversation is never going to lack detail.

Ready? OK:

If you frequent this site, 47.625 should look vaguely familiar. That is Russia’s UEFA coefficient, and because it is the sixth highest of any federation in UEFA, Russia gets three Champions League and three Europa League slots.

How does UEFA go about creating that coefficient? Each season, in Champions League and Europa League competition, teams get two points for each match they win and one point for each draw. In addition, clubs are awarded points for advancing in tournaments. You get four extra points for each of the following accomplishments: qualifying for Champions League group stage; making Europa League’s Round of 16; making the second round of Champions League; and from there forward, for reaching each successive round of either competition.

Rubin and CSKA each have accumulated four points. So had Ukraine’s Dinamo Kyiv, until they beat Rubin. Now, Kyiv has six points.

To figure out a federation’s single-year coefficient, you take all the points accumulated by all their clubs in European competitions, add them together and then divide by the number of teams from that federation that participated. Last year, Russia accumulated 9.750 points. The year before, because of Zenit’s great run in the UEFA Cup, Russia got 11.25 points.

Because of their league’s spectacular UEFA Cup performances last season, Ukraine got 16.625 points, the most of any league in Europe. Yes, more than Spain. More than England. We’ll get back to that later.

We’re already getting deep into numbers, and yet we haven’t explained the 47.625. That is Russia’s full UEFA coefficient, which is the sum of their last five single-year coefficients. The highest five-year rating is England’s, with 79.499. Italy, which currently has the third highest rating (giving their league the last spot at the four Champions League spot level), has a coefficient of 62.91.

Ukraine’s coefficient is 41.850, seventh overall, 5.775 points behind Russia’s. That is important because if Ukraine was able to leapfrog Russia, they would get a three Champions League invitation spot. Russia would drop back down to two.

Unfortunately for Russia, that 5.775 point gap will almost certainly close. In 2004-05, the year that comes off the books in June (when the Champions League and Europe League are finished), Russia’s coefficient was 1.9 points better than Ukraine’s. In June 2010, they essentially lose that advantage, bringing the functional gap between them and Ukraine to 3.875 points.

To give you some perspective on the size of that gap, last year’s difference between Russia and Ukraine was 6.875 points, and with only Rubin and CSKA in European competition, Russia does not have a lot possibilities to come up with a long continental run. Then again, neither does the Ukraine, who have Kyiv in Champions League and Shakhtar Donetsk in Europa.

Rubin and CSKA’s qualifying for group stage means they each have four points, but unfortunately for the Premier League, they are not the only teams to take into account when determining this year’s coefficient. Russia had four teams crash-out during Europa League qualifying. In qualifying rounds, you only accumulate half the points you normally would for wins and draws. Thus, while Sovetov, Amkar, Dinamo and Zenit were being eliminated, they only accumulated three points.

Three. Four teams accumulated three points.

Add that to the points accumulated by the two Champions League teams, and Russia’s current coefficient is 1.83.

With Kyiv and Shakthar each winning their opening matches (Shaktar beat Belgium’s Club Brugge 4-1 to open Europe League), Ukraine also has eight points (six from Dinamo for a win plus UCL group stage qualification, two for Donetsk for their win). Ukraine also has some preliminary point totals to consider, some accumulated by Donetsk, others accumulated by their eliminated clubs: Metalist Kharkiv, Vorskia Poltava, and Metalurh Donetsk. Add in those extra five points, and Ukraine’s current coefficient 2.6, meaning the league has already made up another .77 points on Russia.

Right now, the gap between Russia and Ukraine is about 3.105 points.

With Donetsk in Europa, Rubin in a tough group (with Kyiv, though), and CSKA restructuring, it is not too much to think the Ukrainians can make up that gap. The key could be whether one or both of CSKA and Rubin and finish third in their Champions League group.

A third place win does not get Russia the bonus points of knock-out stage qualification, but it does put them into Europa League’s Round of 32. There, they will have a chance to keep racking up wins and, with each round they can advance, get bonus points. Running through the UEFA Cup was the way the Ukraine built up that 6.875 advantage over Russia last season.

At this point, it may not look like either Russian team is likely to get to the next stage of Champions League, but there is still a lot to play for. CSKA is capable of beating out Besiktas in their group, while Rubin can beat out Kyiv in Group F. All it takes is out performing Dinamo from here forward, which means a strong performance when Kyiv goes to Kazan later in group play.

That match-up is particularly important for Russia. If Rubin can not get three points from Dinamo in Kazan, it is unlikely they can finish third. Not only will that mean Russia loses out on potential Europa League points, its champions will have lost its spot to a Ukranian team, handing those lost points to the league directly below them in the rankings.

Whichever of Rubin or Dinamo get out of Group F to Europa, they should be favored in that tournament’s Round of 32. A win in that round would get them between six and eight points, translating to three to four coefficient points for their league. With the current gap at 3.105 points and Shaktar likely to rack up points in Europa group play, that three or four points could be the difference between Russia holding on to sixth and falling to fourth.

If counting on Europa League performance to augment Champions League failure seems like a loophole to you, if should. In a way, it is better for the Russian federation if Rubin and CSKA finish third in their groups (as opposed to second). That way, they drop into a tournament where the league has had recent success, and they can accumulate points for a federation that is being pushed by seventh place Ukraine. If either team were to finish second in their group, they would get four points for advancing to knock-out stage but would likely get matched-up against one of the continent’s titans in the UCL Round of 16, making it unlikely they would earn further points.

This is how Ukraine was able to get the most points of any federation in Europe. They out pointed England, who had three teams in the Champions League semifinals. Because Europa League points are worth as much as Champion League points, you can make up huge ground in the coefficient rankings by exploiting the second-level tournament.

Or, instead of making up ground, you can reestablish the ground you previously had. Before Ukraine went on last year’s run and jumped five places in the UEFA rankings, Russia was safely distancing itself from the transitioning (read: fading) leagues of Netherlands and Portugal.

Now, Russia is in serious danger of dropping back to two Champions League teams within the next two seasons.